POLLS

Posted at 4:43 p.m. ET

The four trackers out today tell the same story.  Slight gains for Obama, building on an already solid lead.  Rasmussen:  Obama up seven; Gallup:  Obama up five; Battleground:  Obama up five; Hotline:  Obama up five.  Other "standard" polls released in the last day or so have Obama up anywhere from three to nine points.

The situation is tough for McCain, but not impossible.  However, press bias is, in my view, playing a controlling role in the contest.  The press can keep a story alive or kill it, and it will keep the economic story alive, no matter what happens.  Should Sarah Palin do poorly tonight, that could be milked.  The press tastes blood, and wants more.  We have never had a situation quite like this. 

You get the sense that McCain is demoralized, having taken a body blow from the financial chaos, which, by coincidence I'm sure, happened to occur right at the moment when it could hurt him most.  When McCain gets demoralized, he stops fighting.  The wind is taken out of him.

The voter reaction to the economic convulsion is utterly irrational.  Democratic mortgage policies had far more to do with this trauma than Republican mismanagement.  Some of the "statesmen" in Congress who were applauded last night for their work on the bailout package were the same ones responsible for the mess.  But the media won't report it that way.

The Republican cause depends immediately on Sarah Palin.  A triumph by her tonight could restart the McCain effort.  And because the public would see it, the press couldn't do much to destroy it.  But a failure might be fatal. 

Tune in.  We'll be blogging throughout this crucial night.

October 2, 2008.